Europe base oils production and imports are lower than usual: imports of Group III base oils fell to about 90,000 tonnes in July, down from almost 110,000 tonnes in June. This was an 18% month-on-month drop and the lowest level in 30 months, according to Base Oil News. While production in Europe itself faces challenges as two major producers limit sales in the summer due to upcoming maintenance.
Middle East supply remains limited
The Middle East has traditionally been an important source of high quality Group III base oils for Europe. However, supply has been heavily affected by the disruption in the region.
In July, Middle Eastern deliveries to Europe recovered to just over 5,000 tonnes, their highest level in three months. However, this was still around 90% below the average of 50,000 tonnes per month recorded in the previous year, according to Base Oil News. Big part of that volumes before was Group III+, which now blenders have to substitute with PAO-4 which is more expensive and also hard to get.
Transport problems and refinery maintenance
Getting Group III base oils into Europe has also become more difficult. Freight costs and shipping insurance have increased, while Asian cargoes have had to take longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope. This can add 10–15 days to delivery times, according to ICIS. Disbalance in shipping lanes adds another 1-2 weeks or your cargo staying in the port of transit if you ship in iso-tanks or flexi-containers.
At the same time, two major European Group III production sites are scheduled for maintenance. Neste’s Porvoo refinery in Finland is undergoing maintenance from August to October, while ILBOC’s Cartagena plant in Spain has scheduled maintenance in the second half of the year. ICIS notes that these are two of Europe’s largest Group III production units, so their shutdowns can have a significant effect on supply.
Market likely to stay tight
Demand is expected to increase in September as European companies return from the summer holiday period and begin rebuilding stocks. ICIS reports that many buyers have already been working with limited allocations since March 2026.
With European maintenance, lower imports and continuing transport problems, supply is unlikely to improve significantly before the end of 2026. Group III prices in Europe have already reached record highs, exceeding 4000 EUR per tons in some cases, showing how tight the market has become. Before the crisis you could buy Group III in Europe at price around 1000 EUR per ton.
What this means for buyers
European buyers try to adjust buy using more high quality Group II and adding PAO where it is possible. Not every where the producer can pass increased raw material costs to its customers.
With purchasing for October and November being finalized and December is left for clearing stocks, blending companies start planning for Q1 2027 already and it could be a smart move to think about it in advance. Companies may need to plan purchases earlier, keep closer contact with suppliers and allow more time for imported material to arrive.
