The global base oil market has entered 2026 amid a complex mix of refinery maintenances, geopolitical uncertainty, and logistical disruptions. These factors continue to influence availability and pricing across Group I, Group II, and Group III grades.
Central Europe: Group I supply adjustments
Hungarian MOL Group is said to restart Group I production in January 2026, easing recent supply pressures in central and southeast Europe. MOL Group produces 150,000 t/y Group I Base oils in its Százhalombatta refinery, including SN85, SN150, SN350, SN500, BS-150 and light group II grade VG32.
However, supply situation in Central Europe remains unstable. PK Orlen is expected to enter maintenance at the end of the first quarter, which is likely to result in tighter Group I availability across Central European markets. Orlen runs a 268,000 t/y Group I base oil production in Gdansk, as well as 83,000 t/y and 162,000 t/y Group I base oil units in Jedlice and Plock.
Orlen plans to start Group II production at its Gdansk plant by the end of 2026. The company will have approximately 400,000t/y of 150N, 220N and 600N grades combined.
At the same time, pricing in January remains attractive: many European refineries still offer at December levels or even reduced their Group I offers by 10-20 EUR/mt. Group II and Group III base oils market appears to be more stable on some tightness of Asian material.
Western Europe: France’s Port-Jérôme refinery
One of the key merger and acquisition transactions happened in France last year: Canada-based North Atlantic Energies completed the acquisition of the Port-Jérôme refinery from ExxonMobil on 28 November 2025.
The Port-Jérôme refinery remains one of the largest Group I production sites in the region, with output of around 620,000 t/y, making it a key supplier to European markets. Usually supply chain remains unchanged and product with Exxon approvals staying in a high demand.
Middle East: Rising risks around Iranian supply
Mid-January internet shut down in Iran amid fears protests slowed down base oils loading from Iran, key Group I supplier in Middle East, East Africa and India region.
That has not yet impacted the pricing much as the region has plenty of supplies, but it may in case the protests resumes and exports halt from the Persian Gulf (also called Arabian Gulf). The Gulf itself not only major hub for Group I base oils such as SN150 and SN500, but also Group III from Adnoc, Bapco and Shell GTL refinery in Qatar. The region is a big blending hup for finished lubricants products and imports huge amounts of Group II from Asia and USA.
Latin America: Venezuelan oil uncertainty
Venezuela with its massive oil reserves was a major base oils supplier in the region before a collapse in its oils and gas industries.
After the American intervention into Venezuela, the region is under tight watch, as military escalation may lead to crude oil supply disruption as well as in drop of demand for base oils locally as the country relied heavily on imports.
United States: disruptions in the Gulf Coast
Another major industrial accident occurred at a chemical facility near Channelview, Texas, on 27 December 2025, when approximately one million gallons of sulfuric acid were released into the Houston Ship Channel. The incident took place at a BWC Terminals facility on Jacintoport Boulevard. As a result, loading operations were disrupted for around three weeks, affecting multiple shipments, including group II base oils loadings of 70N, 225N, and 600N in barges, tankers and flexies. By mid-January the accident was fixed, and loading resumed, but the backlog remains as previous orders were postponed by several weeks.
What’s next for Lukoil blending assets?
Another key question for the market is the future ownership of Lukoil internation assets: the company owns 5 foreign blending plants. Three plants are in EU, one in Kazakhstan and one in Turkey. Those assets basically stopped consuming base oils after sanctions imposed by USA in the end of October.
The U.S. Treasury granted Lukoil several operation licence extensions, the most recent one valid until 28th of February 2026, allowing the company to sell its overseas assets. Lukoil’s overseas portfolio is valued at $22 billion and includes oils product in Iraq and other counties, shares in refineries in Bulgaria, Romania and about 2000 petroleum stations across Eastern and Central Europe.
